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Residents of the Big Apple will discover the identity of their new city leader this election day, in a contest that will determine who runs and protects the country's most populous metropolis at a time when Donald Trump has threatened to send military troops to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has witnessed a mayoral election that has matched two very different Democrats against one another. The election has become an increasingly bitter showdown, laced with alleged racial bias and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two main contenders that could have major implications for how the party fares in next year's congressional races.

The Rising Progressive

On the left side is the democratic socialist, the 34-year-old democratic socialist whose meteoric rise and people-powered movement has attracted international attention. On the establishment side is the former governor, the ex- Democratic New York governor now running as an independent – and enjoying the support of wealthy contributors and big business.

With days to go, it is Mamdani, the former longshot who beat his opponent in the Democratic primary who is firmly installed as the frontrunner. Mamdani, who has campaigned on a agenda of affordability and pledged to halt rent increases for about two million New Yorkers, has led Cuomo by significant margins across all surveys conducted in the fall, and it is very much the younger man's race to throw away.

A Bitter Contest

However, the former governor, who resigned as the state's leader in recent years amid allegations of sexual harassment, has made it clear he will battle to the end, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt manner. He has criticized his opponent's objectives as unachievable, and in recent days laughed as a radio host made Islamophobic remarks about the candidate, who is a Muslim. Recently, Cuomo was widely condemned as racist after sharing an artificial intelligence video that featured a slew of racist stereotypes and showed his opponent freeing a convicts.

This represents a rather grubby conclusion to an election that could be critical to the direction that the Democratic party, floundering in its response to the former president's power moves, takes in the coming years.

National Implications

If the progressive wins convincingly, the party establishment who have refused to endorse his bid will be compelled to address a message that has appealed to voters' anger at inequality, soaring price rises and the political elite. It would be difficult for the Senate leader and the House leader not to adopt at least some of the candidate's progressive proposals about affordability, given the fresh face has generated an excitement within the Democratic ranks arguably not witnessed since Bernie Sanders campaigned for the White House in 2016.

Conversely, if Cuomo, who had been predicted to sail to victory in the June primary, complete a remarkable comeback win, it could reinforce the party's current model of considered, uninspiring opposition – a tactic that has angered the party base. A New York defeat of the progressive's optimistic platform could convince Schumer and Jeffries that the best plan is to remain in the center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the Democratic party is deeply unpopular across the country.

Campaign Energy

Residents of the city appear to favor the Mamdani vision. Polls show that his backers are far more enthusiastic about their choice than Cuomo backers, something that has been apparent during the race. The candidate's engaging content on social media, his optimistic vision for the city and his readiness to actually get out and meet people in the city has drawn an army of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them young or new participants.

Negative Tactics

However, Cuomo, in his late sixties, continues to fight. And with the stakes stacked against him, the ex-leader has turned to negative campaigning in recent weeks.

After spending months throwing basically everything at his opponent to see what might stick, the independent has narrowed his focus on attacking Mamdani personally. He has labelled Mamdani, who was of Ugandan origin to South Asian heritage, an “extremist”, and appeared on Fox Business for an discussion with a rightwing host, where the candidate asserted the city “will not survive” his opponent as city leader. It hit bottom last week, when the former governor laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said Mamdani would “cheer” another 9/11-style attack.

Campaign Dynamics

This strategy mirrors much of what the former president, who has sent the military reserves to the capital and warned to do the same to NYC, has said about Mamdani, and maybe that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A group of wealthy residents, including some who contributed to Trump in the last presidential race, have pumped millions into trying to get Cuomo into office, as other influential figures have pressured Curtis Sliwa to withdraw from the contest.

Political Histories

As far as the Cuomo camp, and his wealthy backers, are worried, it should never have come to this point. When Mamdani, one of 150 New York state assembly members, launched his mayoral bid in last year, few had heard of him, and in reality, few even noticed.

The former governor, by contrast, eased his way into the contest in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the big beast who seemingly held every edge. The classic political insider, he had wed a political dynasty member and worked in a Democratic presidency. He became the state's leader in 2011, seventeen years after his father, Mario Cuomo, left office from the identical role.

The progressive, who was elected to the state legislature in 2020, does not have the comparable background. But his dedication to providing free buses and free childcare – along with the rent control promise – present a brighter outlook of the future than Cuomo’s dire warnings about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his promise to hire more police officers.

Recent Challenges

Still, the candidate has faced some challenges in the final phase, after footage emerged appearing to show him implying the NYPD and the Israel Defense Forces were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the police is on your neck, it’s been influenced by the Israeli military,” Mamdani said in the recording, recorded at a Democratic Socialists of America convention in 2023. The progressive, a vocal opponent of Israel who has said the nation is engaging in atrocities in the Palestinian territory, suggested he was questioning joint training exercises between the NYPD and Israeli forces.

Powerful Moment

As the race closes, the candidate appears to have won sympathy and support, however, for his reaction to Cuomo’s increasing rhetoric.

The progressive responded to Cuomo’s terrorism comments in an heartfelt recording. In it, the candidate remembered how, when he first ran for the legislature, a family member suggested to him that he did not have to disclose about his religion. It was a realization, he said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been taught “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the margins of our community. That it is in those shadows alone where Muslims could embrace their true selves, and that if we were to step out from those shadows, then it is in those shadows that we must leave our beliefs.”

Addressing the behavior of his opponents, who has alleged Mamd