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Ordinarily, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year honor adheres to a straightforward formula. It frequently acts as a kind of mea culpa. We regret we underestimated your franchise in our pre-campaign predictions.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who orchestrated the most dramatic resurgence is handed the prize. However, it fuels an annual debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually rewarding excellent leadership or just the biggest surprise.

But the latest field is distinctly different. The list of candidates is remarkably strong. It has been the season of comebacks. The league has been chaotic, with recent division champions declining and longtime underperformers ascending collectively. Under an typical season, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the overwhelming favorite. Yet in this turbulent and fun year, he's facing five other outstanding coaches.

Here is how the hypothetical vote ought to shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters love signal-callers. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you fix a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just corrected Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Given a proper ecosystem, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to showcase his special talent. From Week 9, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's sustained dominance. With Johnson, Williams has become increasingly confident, far less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the gameplan rather than going rogue. It is an attack constructed entirely in the coach's image: a physical ground attack, a heavy helping of play-action and a imaginative passing attack that frees wide-open receivers all over the field. Williams has thrived. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been capable to spin magic from nothing.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a defined offensive blueprint. Almost each gamble – rebuilding the trenches, featuring the tight ends, transforming Williams into a timing-based thrower – has succeeded. This is uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer yet for a leader who entered the building with the level of hype he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after candidate on the head coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme dork but the kind of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

During a ordinary year, he would be the runaway favorite. But this isn't a typical season!

The area where Johnson's case runs a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears currently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and takeaways are famously fickle. Defensive minds can stress ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is legitimate. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. With a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be two wins behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is in place for long-term success. However he comes up just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar spot to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has masterminded a rapid turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best overall ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defense that now ranks number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, he has excelled at the leadership aspects, which was not a given following his early public introduction and some of his preseason moves.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the perfect coaching blend of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen hired first-timers. From the head coach on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That kind of approach is intriguing on paper, but frequently collapses in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a their job in real-time. Yet he has pulled everyone and everything into sync.

After an initial hot start, there was a chance that the campaign would go off the rails. A midseason setback caused the Jags stumbling once more. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. He didn't. Instead, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped pursuing home-run plays and started seeking sustainable ones. Coen refocused the offense around key players and the running game, and asked his QB to use his mobility more often.

The results are evident. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. He gets the slightest deduction in the standings because he took over a talented roster, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year narrative has a defining decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB choice.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a different signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative play-caller could have derailed the season in October. Rather, it shaped it. By the middle point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has regressed after that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, putting him just one spot ahead of other QBs.

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